气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A human-environmental network model for assessing coastal mitigation decisions informed by imperfect climate studies

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.09.006
	A human-environmental network model for assessing coastal mitigation decisions informed by imperfect climate studies
	Small M.J.; Xian S.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	137
结束页码	145
卷号	53
英文摘要	A Bayesian network model is developed to explore the interaction between physical and social processes that influence mitigation decisions and outcomes for extreme events. The network includes statistical relationships for event occurrence and magnitude; uncertainty in the parameters of these models; a high degree of variability in the sequence of events that occurs in any given time interval, and the possibility of long-term trends in the frequency, magnitude and impact of events. The model is applied to coastal storm surge events in the New York City (NYC) area. A 50 cm increase in sea level is predicted to approximately double the expected cumulative damage over a 40-year period. A 20% increment in storm frequency yields a further predicted increase of about 18% in the cumulative damage. The uncertainties in long-term trends associated with climate change may be reduced by scientific studies. However the value of this information is affected both by study accuracy and the extent of its trust, acceptance and utilization by decision makers. Implications of this are assessed in the model, showing that the probability of regret is notably reduced when climate study results are used to support mitigation decisions. This is demonstrated even when the studies have relatively low accuracy, moreso when they exhibit good or perfect accuracy. Based on model insights and limitations, further research needs are identified to better understand extreme event risk perception and management in coupled human-environmental systems. © 2018 The Authors
英文关键词	Bayesian network; Climate studies; Coastal storm flooding; Mitigation regret; New York City; Risk perception
学科领域	Bayesian analysis; climate change; coastal zone management; decision making; extreme event; flooding; management practice; model; nature-society relations; risk perception; sea level change; storm surge; New York [New York (STT)]; New York [United States]; United States
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Bayesian analysis; climate change; coastal zone management; decision making; extreme event; flooding; management practice; model; nature-society relations; risk perception; sea level change; storm surge; New York [New York (STT)]; New York [United States]; United States
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117083
作者单位	Anderson Family Visiting Professor in Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, United States; Civil & Environmental Engineering and Engineering & Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, United States; Civil & Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, 59 Olden St., Princeton, NJ 08540, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Small M.J.,Xian S.. A human-environmental network model for assessing coastal mitigation decisions informed by imperfect climate studies[J],2018,53.
APA	Small M.J.,&Xian S..(2018).A human-environmental network model for assessing coastal mitigation decisions informed by imperfect climate studies.Global Environmental change,53.
MLA	Small M.J.,et al."A human-environmental network model for assessing coastal mitigation decisions informed by imperfect climate studies".Global Environmental change 53(2018).