气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forecasting water budget deficits and groundwater depletion in the main fossil aquifer systems in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.09.009
	Forecasting water budget deficits and groundwater depletion in the main fossil aquifer systems in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula
	Mazzoni A.; Heggy E.; Scabbia G.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	157
结束页码	173
卷号	53
英文摘要	We develop a water budget model that quantifies and forecasts water deficits and groundwater depletion of the main exploitable fresh fossil aquifer systems in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula under different climatic and socio-economic scenarios from 2016 until 2050. Our results suggest that in the upcoming few decades, under the most plausible climatic and socio-economic scenario (SSP2-AVG), within North Africa, only Egypt and Libya will experience severe water deficits with respectively ∼45% and ∼90% of their current water budget in 2050. For the Arabian Peninsula, all countries will undergo water deficits, ranging from ∼20% for Saudi Arabia to almost double the supply for Yemen (∼190%). Under these alarming deficits, resulting from severe anthropogenic discharges, the majority of the small to mid-size exploitable fossil aquifer systems in the Arabian Peninsula could reach full depletion by 2050 and the total depletion of groundwater resources in all aquifer systems could be reached in ∼60–90 years. Over the same time span, North African fossil aquifers will lose 1–15% of their exploitable fresh water volume and may reach total depletion in ∼200–350 years with the projected increased extraction rates. We find that the major cause of the water budget deficit and groundwater depletion in the MENA area are anthropogenic drivers rather than climatic ones. Finally, we conclude that if current hydrologic, climatic and socio-economic trends continue, the nations with the lowest gross domestic product per capita, like Egypt, Yemen and Libya, will undergo the highest water deficit per capita, leading to a significant rise in food prices, potentially resulting in more socio-economic instabilities over the next three decades. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Arid environments; Climate change; Groundwater budget; Projections; Water and food security; Water deficit
学科领域	anthropogenic effect; aquifer; arid environment; climate change; food security; forecasting method; fossil; Gross Domestic Product; groundwater; groundwater resource; hydrological modeling; resource depletion; socioeconomic conditions; water budget; Arabian Peninsula; Egypt; Libyan Arab Jamahiriya; North Africa; Saudi Arabia; Yemen
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropogenic effect; aquifer; arid environment; climate change; food security; forecasting method; fossil; Gross Domestic Product; groundwater; groundwater resource; hydrological modeling; resource depletion; socioeconomic conditions; water budget; Arabian Peninsula; Egypt; Libyan Arab Jamahiriya; North Africa; Saudi Arabia; Yemen
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117082
作者单位	Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute, Qatar Foundation, Education City, Doha, 34110, Qatar; University of Southern California, Viterbi School of Engineering, 3737 Watt Way, Los Angeles, CA 90089-1112, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109-8001, United States; University of Turin, Department of Economics and Statistics “Cognetti de Martiis”, Lungo Dora Siena 100-ATorino 10153, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mazzoni A.,Heggy E.,Scabbia G.. Forecasting water budget deficits and groundwater depletion in the main fossil aquifer systems in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula[J],2018,53.
APA	Mazzoni A.,Heggy E.,&Scabbia G..(2018).Forecasting water budget deficits and groundwater depletion in the main fossil aquifer systems in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.Global Environmental change,53.
MLA	Mazzoni A.,et al."Forecasting water budget deficits and groundwater depletion in the main fossil aquifer systems in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula".Global Environmental change 53(2018).