气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society's capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.010
	Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society's capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target
	Pedde S.; Kok K.; Hölscher K.; Frantzeskaki N.; Holman I.; Dunford R.; Smith A.; Jäger J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	56
英文摘要	With a range of potential pathways to a sustainable future compatible with the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C target, scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool in studies of climate change mitigation and adaptation. A wide range of alternative scenarios have been created, and core amongst these are five socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways or SSPs) and four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). Whilst mitigation scenarios (the Shared Policy Assumptions, or SPAs) have been developed for each SSP-RCP combination, describing the actions necessary to match the climate pathway of the RCP, there has not yet been a systematic approach to address whether and how these actions can be enabled in practice. We present a novel and transferable framework to understand society's capacity to achieve the 1.5 °C target, based on four participatory case studies using the SSP-RCP scenarios. The methodology builds on a framework for categorising different types of societal capitals and capacities and assessing their impact on the potential to implement different types of mitigation actions. All four case studies show that SSP1 has the highest potential to reach the target. Although environmental awareness is high in both SSP1 and SSP4, continued social inequalities in SSP4 restrict society's capacity to transform, despite economic growth. In the two least environmentally-aware SSPs, SSP3 and SSP5, the transformation potential is low, but the view on capitals and capacities nonetheless helps identify opportunities for actors to develop and implement mitigation actions. The study highlights that techno-economic assessments of climate strategies need to be complemented by consideration of the critical role played by social and human capital, and by societal capacity to mobilise and create these capitals despite different socio-economic trends. These capitals and capacities are essential to enable the rapid innovation, behavioural change and international co-ordination needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target. © 2019
英文关键词	1.5 degree target; Capacities; Capitals; Mitigation; SSP-RCP scenarios; Transformation
学科领域	action plan; climate change; economic growth; environmental policy; implementation process; international agreement; mitigation; participatory approach; scenario analysis; social capital; socioeconomic impact; strategic approach; sustainability; sustainable development
语种	英语
scopus关键词	action plan; climate change; economic growth; environmental policy; implementation process; international agreement; mitigation; participatory approach; scenario analysis; social capital; socioeconomic impact; strategic approach; sustainability; sustainable development
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117048
作者单位	Soil Geography and Landscape Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, Wageningen, PB 6708, Netherlands; Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT), Faculty of Social Sciences, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Burgemeester Oudlaan 50, Rotterdam, DR 4000, Netherlands; Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; Vienna, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pedde S.,Kok K.,Hölscher K.,et al. Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society's capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target[J],2019,56.
APA	Pedde S..,Kok K..,Hölscher K..,Frantzeskaki N..,Holman I..,...&Jäger J..(2019).Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society's capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target.Global Environmental Change,56.
MLA	Pedde S.,et al."Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society's capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target".Global Environmental Change 56(2019).