气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944
	The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
	Fitton N.; Alexander P.; Arnell N.; Bajzelj B.; Calvin K.; Doelman J.; Gerber J.S.; Havlik P.; Hasegawa T.; Herrero M.; Krisztin T.; van Meijl H.; Powell T.; Sands R.; Stehfest E.; West P.C.; Smith P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	58
英文摘要	Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity. © 2019 The Authors
英文关键词	Food security; Land use; Shared socio-economic pathways; Water availability
学科领域	agricultural land; food production; food security; future prospect; land use; socioeconomic conditions; vulnerability; water availability; water stress
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural land; food production; food security; future prospect; land use; socioeconomic conditions; vulnerability; water availability; water stress
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117034
作者单位	Institute of Biological & Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, Scotland AB24 3UU, United Kingdom; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Security, The Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Midlothian, EH25 9RG, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology and Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands; Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, United States; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmen...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fitton N.,Alexander P.,Arnell N.,et al. The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity[J],2019,58.
APA	Fitton N..,Alexander P..,Arnell N..,Bajzelj B..,Calvin K..,...&Smith P..(2019).The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity.Global Environmental change,58.
MLA	Fitton N.,et al."The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity".Global Environmental change 58(2019).