气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Response of dune activity on the Tibetan Plateau to near future climate change

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DOI	10.3354/cr01385
	Response of dune activity on the Tibetan Plateau to near future climate change
	Liu, Benli; Qu, Jianjun; Kang, Shichang
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0936-577X
EISSN	1616-1572
卷号	69 期号:1
英文摘要	Four general circulation models (GCMs) under the moderate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 emission scenario were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on monthly scale dune activity and desertification during the near future (2015-2035) in Anduo on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) of China. Dune activity was estimated by an improved index that uses the Penman-Monteith equation to account for comprehensive climate factors, including precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and air pressure. Lower limits were used for the evapotranspiration values and the ratio of rainfall to evapotranspiration so that it was possible to calculate a dune activity index in the cold and dry winter months in the TP. The GCM outputs were transferred by statistical functions built from the control period (1966-2005), and the overlapping period of GCM projections and observations from 2006-2014 was used for error estimation. The results show that all GCMs captured the variation in dune activity well, although large differences in values were found. The statistical transferring of GCM outputs cannot reduce estimation error. The annual dune activity index is predicted to decrease by 7 to 9% during 2015-2035, implying that sand dunes will be easily stabilized in the future, but the 4 GCMs differ in January and February. If excessive surface disturbances can be controlled, the future environment in the studied area will be suitable for the reversal of the desertification trend, recovery of degraded land, and improvement of the living conditions for local herders.
关键词	Dune activity index Penman-Monteith equation General circulation models GCMs Statistical transfer
学科领域	Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊	CLIMATE RESEARCH
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/111859
作者单位	Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Dunhuang Gobi Desert Ecol & Engn Res Stn, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Benli,Qu, Jianjun,Kang, Shichang. Response of dune activity on the Tibetan Plateau to near future climate change[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2016,69(1).
APA	Liu, Benli,Qu, Jianjun,&Kang, Shichang.(2016).Response of dune activity on the Tibetan Plateau to near future climate change.CLIMATE RESEARCH,69(1).
MLA	Liu, Benli,et al."Response of dune activity on the Tibetan Plateau to near future climate change".CLIMATE RESEARCH 69.1(2016).