气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of extreme climate events using a regional climate model for China

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DOI	10.1002/joc.4024
	Evaluation of extreme climate events using a regional climate model for China
	Ji, Zhenming; Kang, Shichang
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
卷号	35 期号:6
英文摘要	Extreme climate events over China at the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) are investigated using the regional climate model RegCM4. Model performance is validated through comparison between observations and simulations over the period 1985-2005. The results show that RegCM4 can satisfactorily reproduce the spatial distribution of extreme climate events over China. The model simulates temperature extremes more accurately than precipitation. Under the RCP8.5 (high emission) scenario, the number of frost days decreases, and both the heat wave duration index and the growing season length increase dramatically towards the end of the 21st century. Changes in extreme temperature become increasingly pronounced from South to North China, with the most significant changes occurring on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The proportion of heavy precipitation generally increases, except on the southern TP. The number of very heavy precipitation days increases by 25-50% in Northwest and East China. In winter, the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) decreases in North China and increases in South China. The greatest increases in CDD are found in June, July and August (JJA) in Southwest China. In a future that follows this scenario, drought events may be aggravated in Southwest China, and decrease in North China. In contrast, when repeating these projections under the assumption of the RCP4.5 scenario for emissions, the frequency of extreme climate events is reduced. These results suggest that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions may mitigate the effects of climate change over the coming decades.
关键词	projection extreme climate events regional climate model China RCP scenario
学科领域	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/111769
作者单位	Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ji, Zhenming,Kang, Shichang. Evaluation of extreme climate events using a regional climate model for China[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2015,35(6).
APA	Ji, Zhenming,&Kang, Shichang.(2015).Evaluation of extreme climate events using a regional climate model for China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,35(6).
MLA	Ji, Zhenming,et al."Evaluation of extreme climate events using a regional climate model for China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 35.6(2015).