气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.11.006
	Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations
	You, Qinglong; Min, Jinzhong; Fraedrich, Klaus; Zhang, Wei; Kang, Shichang; Zhang, Ling; Meng, Xianhong
发表日期	2014
ISSN	0921-8181
EISSN	1872-6364
卷号	112
英文摘要	This study examines the projected characteristics of mean temperature (T-mean), maximum temperature (T-max) and minimum temperature (T-min) in China during 2006-2100 from simulations of MPI-ESM-LR model within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Periods of 2011-2040 and 2061-2090 are concentrated on the analysis under the three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), a midrange mitigation emission scenario (RCP4.5), and a low emission scenario (RCP2.6). Under RCP8.5, the T-mean, T-max and T-min, show pronounced warming with the annual rates of 0.43 degrees C/decade, 0.42 degrees C/decade, 0.45 degrees C/decade during 2011-2040, and 0.72 degrees C/decade, 0.70 degrees C/decade, 0.76 degrees C/decade during 2061-2090, which pronouncedly contributed by winter. Under RCP4.5, the T-mean, T-max and T-min display consistent increases during 2011-2040 with the trends of 0.29 degrees C/decade, 0.29 degrees C/decade, 0.30 degrees C/decade on the annual basis, respectively, and the increases calm down for T-mean, T-max and T-min up to 0.14 degrees C/decade during 2061-2090. Under RCP2.6, the T-mean, T-max and T-min demonstrate positive trends during 2011-2040 with the annual rates of 0.26 degrees C/decade, 0.28 degrees C/decade, 0.25 degrees C/decade, respectively, and turn to negative afterwards. Moreover, the annual and seasonal T-mean, T-max and T-min are in agreement with the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and reflect the variability of the radiative forcing trajectories in the RCP. For the spatial patterns, the northeastern China and the Tibetan Plateau are more sensitive and susceptible to climate change in future emission scenarios. It fails to capture the asymmetric trends for T-max and T-min projections, which do exist in the observations on the regional and global scales. This suggests that the projections have uncertainties in the models, and an understanding of causes is essential to improve the accuracies. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词	temperature CMIP5 RCP China
学科领域	Physical Geography; Geology
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
来源期刊	GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/111726
作者单位	Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Minist Educ, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	You, Qinglong,Min, Jinzhong,Fraedrich, Klaus,et al. Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2014,112.
APA	You, Qinglong.,Min, Jinzhong.,Fraedrich, Klaus.,Zhang, Wei.,Kang, Shichang.,...&Meng, Xianhong.(2014).Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,112.
MLA	You, Qinglong,et al."Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 112(2014).