气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Present and projected degree days in China from observation, reanalysis and simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-013-1960-0
	Present and projected degree days in China from observation, reanalysis and simulations
	You, Qinglong; Fraedrich, Klaus; Sielmann, Frank; Min, Jinzhong; Kang, Shichang; Ji, Zhenming; Zhu, Xiuhua; Ren, Guoyu
发表日期	2014
ISSN	0930-7575
EISSN	1432-0894
卷号	43 期号:2019-05-06
英文摘要	Degree days are usually defined as the accumulated daily mean temperature varying with the base temperature, and are one of the most important indicators of climate changes. In this study, the present-day and projected changes of four degree days indices from daily mean surface air temperature output simulated by Max Planck Institute, Earth Systems Model of low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) model are evaluated with the high resolution gridded-observation dataset and two modern reanalyses in China. During 1979-2005, the heating degree days (HDD) and the numbers of HDD (NHDD) have decreased for observation, reanalyses (ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR) and model simulations (historical and decadal experiments), consistent with the increasing cooling degree days (CDD) and the numbers of CDD (NCDD). These changes reflect the general warming in China during the past decades. In most cases, ERA-Interim is closer to observation than NCEP/NCAR and model simulations. There are discrepancies between observation, reanalyses and model simulations in the spatial patterns and regional means. The decadal hindcast/forecast simulation performance of MPI-ESM-LR produce warmer than the observed mean temperature in China during the entire period, and the hindcasts forecast a trend lower than the observed. Under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios, HDD and NHDD show significant decreases, and CDD and NCDD consistently increase during 2006-2100 under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, especially before the mid-21 century. More pronounced changes occur under RCP8.5, which is associated with a high rate of radiative forcing. The 20th century runs reflect the sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the uncertainties in terms of the inter-ensemble are small, whereas the long-term trend is well represented with no differences among ensembles.
关键词	Degree days MPI-ESM-LR NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim China
学科领域	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/111715
作者单位	Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	You, Qinglong,Fraedrich, Klaus,Sielmann, Frank,et al. Present and projected degree days in China from observation, reanalysis and simulations[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2014,43(2019-05-06).
APA	You, Qinglong.,Fraedrich, Klaus.,Sielmann, Frank.,Min, Jinzhong.,Kang, Shichang.,...&Ren, Guoyu.(2014).Present and projected degree days in China from observation, reanalysis and simulations.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,43(2019-05-06).
MLA	You, Qinglong,et al."Present and projected degree days in China from observation, reanalysis and simulations".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 43.2019-05-06(2014).