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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.034
	Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries
	Wahiduzzaman, Md 1; Yeasmin, Alea 2,3
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
EISSN	1873-2895
卷号	227 页码:89-100
英文摘要	This paper investigates the forecast potential of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall probabilities over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries using ocean-climate predictor variables in a new statistical seasonal forecast model. A Poisson regression model was used to predict the landfall probabilities for a period of 35 years of TC observations (1979-2013) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the predictor variables include sea surface temperature, Southern Oscillation Index and ocean heat content. Poisson regression was found skilful in hindcasting of tropical cyclone landfall frequency for the NIO region with a correlation coefficient in the forecasted hindcast time series of 0.65 and 31% improvement above climatology. In the present study, genesis was modelled by kernel density estimation, tracks were fitted using a generalised additive model (GAM) approach with a Euler integration step, and landfall location was estimated using a country mask. This GAM model that is previously demonstrated very skilful to simulate TC landfall across the NIO rim countries by Wahiduzzaman et al. (2017, 2019) deems skilful for this study.
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/103135
作者单位	1.Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia; 2.RMIT Univ, SPACE Res Ctr, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 3.Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Sci & Technol U, Gopalganj, Bangladesh
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wahiduzzaman, Md,Yeasmin, Alea. Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries[J],2019,227:89-100.
APA	Wahiduzzaman, Md,&Yeasmin, Alea.(2019).Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,227,89-100.
MLA	Wahiduzzaman, Md,et al."Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 227(2019):89-100.