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DOI10.1016/j.watres.2019.06.005
A Bayesian risk assessment framework for microcystin violations of drinking water and recreational standards in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario, Canada
Kelly, Noreen E.1,5; Javed, Aisha1; Shimoda, Yuko1; Zastepa, Arthur2; Watson, Susan3; Mugalingam, Shan4; Arhonditsis, George B.1
发表日期2019
ISSN0043-1354
卷号162页码:288-301
英文摘要

Freshwater ecosystems can experience harmful algal blooms, which negatively impact recreational uses, aesthetics, taste, and odor in drinking water. Cyanobacterial toxins can have dire repercussions on aquatic wildlife and human health, and the most ubiquitous worldwide are the hepatotoxic compounds known as microcystins. The factors that influence the occurrence and magnitude of cyanobacteria blooms and toxin production vary in space and time and remain poorly understood. It is within this context that we present a suite of statistical models, parameterized with Bayesian inference techniques, to link the retrospective analysis of important environmental factors with the probability of exceedance of threshold microcystin levels. Our modelling framework is applied to the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario, Canada; a system with a long history of eutrophication problems. Collectively, 16.1% of the samples of the system collected during the study period (2003-2016) exceeded the drinking water guideline of 1.5 mu gL(-1), while approximately 3% of recorded values exceeded the recommended recreational threshold of 20 mu gL(-1). Using a segmented regression model with a stochastic breakpoint of microcystin concentrations estimated at 0.54 mu g L-1, we demonstrate that the environmental conditions associated with increased probability of exceedance of the drinking water standard are chlorophyll a concentration (3)(7) mu g L-1, water temperature (3)20 degrees C, ammonium concentration <= 40 mu gL(-1), total phosphorus concentration (3)25 mu g L-1, and wind speed <= 37 km h(-1). Considering the multitude of factors that can influence the ambient levels of toxins, our study argues that the adoption of probabilistic water quality criteria offers a pragmatic approach to accommodate the associated uncertainty by permitting a realistic frequency of violations. In this context, we present a framework to evaluate the confidence of compliance with probabilistic standards that stipulate less than 10% violations of microcystin threshold ambient levels. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


WOS研究方向Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
来源期刊WATER RESEARCH
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/103133
作者单位1.Univ Toronto, Dept Phys & Environm Sci, Toronto, ON M1C 1A4, Canada;
2.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canada Ctr Inland Waters, Burlington, ON L7R 4A6, Canada;
3.Univ Waterloo, Dept Biol, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada;
4.Lower Trent Conservat Author, Trenton, ON K8V 5P4, Canada;
5.Bedford Inst Oceanog, 1 Challenger Dr, Dartmouth, NS B2Y 4A2, Canada
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Kelly, Noreen E.,Javed, Aisha,Shimoda, Yuko,et al. A Bayesian risk assessment framework for microcystin violations of drinking water and recreational standards in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario, Canada[J],2019,162:288-301.
APA Kelly, Noreen E..,Javed, Aisha.,Shimoda, Yuko.,Zastepa, Arthur.,Watson, Susan.,...&Arhonditsis, George B..(2019).A Bayesian risk assessment framework for microcystin violations of drinking water and recreational standards in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario, Canada.WATER RESEARCH,162,288-301.
MLA Kelly, Noreen E.,et al."A Bayesian risk assessment framework for microcystin violations of drinking water and recreational standards in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario, Canada".WATER RESEARCH 162(2019):288-301.
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