气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
	Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections
	Morim J.; Hemer M.; Wang X.L.; Cartwright N.; Trenham C.; Semedo A.; Young I.; Bricheno L.; Camus P.; Casas-Prat M.; Erikson L.; Mentaschi L.; Mori N.; Shimura T.; Timmermans B.; Aarnes O.; Breivik Ø.; Behrens A.; Dobrynin M.; Menendez M.; Staneva J.; Wehner M.; Wolf J.; Kamranzad B.; Webb A.; Stopa J.; Andutta F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:9 页码:711-+
英文摘要	Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
scopus关键词	climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; coastal zone management; environmental planning; global climate; multivariate analysis; significant wave height; uncertainty analysis; wave climate; wave direction; wind wave
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/102674
作者单位	School of Built Environment and Engineering, Griffith University, Southport, QLD, Australia; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; US Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, United States; Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON, Canada; IHE-Delft, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Delft, Netherlands; Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal; Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; National Oceanographic Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom; Environmental Hydraulics Institute (IHCantabria), Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy; Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; Climate and Ecosystems Science Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, Uni...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Morim J.,Hemer M.,Wang X.L.,et al. Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections[J],2019,9(9):711-+.
APA	Morim J..,Hemer M..,Wang X.L..,Cartwright N..,Trenham C..,...&Andutta F..(2019).Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections.Nature Climate Change,9(9),711-+.
MLA	Morim J.,et al."Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections".Nature Climate Change 9.9(2019):711-+.