气候变化领域集成服务门户

Since 2005, dozens of geographical observational stations have been established in the Heihe River Basin (HRB), and by now a large amount of meteorological, hydrological, and ecological observations as well as data pertaining to water resources, soil and vegetation have been collected. To adequately analyze these available data and data to be further collected in future, we present a perspective from complexity theory. The concrete materials covered include a presentation of adaptive multiscale filter, which can readily determine arbitrary trends, maximally reduce noise, and reliably perform fractal and multifractal analysis, and a presentation of scale-dependent Lyapunov exponent (SDLE), which can reliably distinguish deterministic chaos from random processes, determine the error doubling time for prediction, and obtain the defining parameters of the process examined. The adaptive filter is illustrated by applying it to obtain the global warming trend and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation from sea surface temperature data, and by applying it to some variables collected at the HRB to determine diurnal cycle and fractal properties. The SDLE is illustrated to determine intermittent chaos from river flow data.