气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0
	Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era
	Neukom R.; Barboza L.A.; Erb M.P.; Shi F.; Emile-Geay J.; Evans M.N.; Franke J.; Kaufman D.S.; Lücke L.; Rehfeld K.; Schurer A.; Zhu F.; Brönnimann S.; Hakim G.J.; Henley B.J.; Ljungqvist F.C.; McKay N.; Valler V.; von Gunten L.; PAGES 2k Consortium
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17520894
EISSN	1752-0908
卷号	12 期号:8 页码:643-+
英文摘要	Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300–1800 ce) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
WOS研究方向	Geology
scopus关键词	climate forcing; CMIP; paleoclimate; reconstruction; simulation; surface temperature; temperature gradient; volcanic aerosol
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/101639
作者单位	Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Escuela de Matematica-CIMPA, Universidad de Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica; School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States; Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment, Beijing, China; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Department of Geology and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Institute of Environmental Physics, Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; School of Earth Sciences, Uni...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Neukom R.,Barboza L.A.,Erb M.P.,et al. Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era[J],2019,12(8):643-+.
APA	Neukom R..,Barboza L.A..,Erb M.P..,Shi F..,Emile-Geay J..,...&PAGES 2k Consortium.(2019).Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era.Nature Geoscience,12(8),643-+.
MLA	Neukom R.,et al."Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era".Nature Geoscience 12.8(2019):643-+.