气候变化领域集成服务门户

Cameron Highlands is one of agricultural areas in Peninsular Malaysia. Changing climate has brought threats to this highland region and caused number of climate related disasters such as landslides and floods in recent years. These devastated extreme events had affected the socioeconomic of the local community. The main purpose of this study is to develop a climate hazard decision support system (DSS) for Cameron Highlands based on the driving forces, pressures, states, impacts and responses (DPSIR) framework. It aims to support stakeholders on the land use development and climate hazard reduction in Cameron Highlands. A case study approach was adopted whereas qualitative and quantitative methods were applied in the study. The methods chosen for this study were literature review, data collection, statistical analysis and synthesis, and climate hazard decision support system development. Apart from literature review, local community opinion survey, expertise interview and statistical analysis were the main research activities. Statistical analyses that are most appropriate in data interpretation were determined in the planning phase of this study. Three statistical analyses were carried out namely reliability test, principal component analysis (PCA) and sensitivity analysis. Indicators were extracted by principal component analysis (PCA). Each indicator was then given weightage based on expertise input to form a composite index. The pre-defined indicators were then given a weightage and rating by the 11 experts from different institutions. Reliability analysis was conducted and the Cronbach's alpha value of 0.952 (where alpha > 0.70) was obtained in this study. It indicated a high level of internal consistency of survey outcomes. Based on the survey outcomes, total 25 indicators were extracted using Principal Components Analysis (PCA). These indicators were grouped into 13 subcomponents which are population, solid waste, land use changes, flood disaster, developments/investment opportunities, climate change indicators, health and sanitation, soil quality, disasters/mass movements, socioeconomic, environmental quality, private and public sectors, and individuals. With the outcomes of PCA and experts interview, weightage for each indicator was determined and further aggregated into a decision support system conceptual model as HADSS ver.1.0. Primary data was collected in order to pilot run the HADSS 1.0. It generated an output of -0.5573 and indicated that Cameron Highlands may be deteriorating and at high risk of climate hazards. The standardised beta value of sensitivity test for indicators was obtained as 0.967. The high beta value for indicators means that they are sensitive to changes of the model. The main contribution of HADSS ver.1.0 is to advise and aware the stakeholders about the contribution of their environmental, economic, and social impacts to sustainable development. This increases the transparency in decision making especially local plan development when everyone is involved and played their roles. The HADSS ver. 1.0 also provides a new solution to climate hazards in Cameron Highlands (floods and landslides) and demonstrating the solution's efficacy.