气候变化领域集成服务门户

Background: Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) is a destructive disease of citrus and a major threat to the citrus industry around the world. This disease accounts for substantial economic losses in China every year. Diaphorina citri Kuwayama is one of the major vectors by which citrus HLB is spread under natural conditions in China. Research is needed to identify the geographic distribution of D. citri and its major areas of occurrence and to formulate measures for early warning, monitoring, and control of this pest and citrus HLB.

Methods: In this study, the ecological niche modelling software MaxEnt (maximum entropy model) was combined with ArcGIS (a geographic information system) to predict the potential geographic distribution of D. citri in China. Key environmental factors and the appropriate ranges of their values were also investigated.

Results: Our results show that the training data provided a good forecast (AUC(mean) = 0.988). The highly suitable areas for D. citri in China are mainly concentrated to the south of the Yangtze River, and the total area is 139.83 x 10(4) km(2). The area of the moderately suitable areas is 27.71 x 10(4) km(2), with a narrower distribution than that of the highly suitable area. The important environmental factors affecting the distribution of D. citri were min temperature of coldest month, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation of wettest quarter, mean temperature of warmest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, max temperature of warmest month, and temperature seasonality. These results provide a valuable theoretical basis for risk assessments and control of D. citri.

Discussion: The predicted results showed that there were highly suitable areas for D. citri in Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangsu. Therefore, the possibility exists for the further spread of D. citri in China in the future. Extreme temperature variables, especially the min temperature of the coldest month, play an important role in the distribution of D. citri and are most closely related to the distribution of D. citri.