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DOI10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0136.1
Climate Scientists' Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain
Lohre, Erik1,2; Juanchich, Marie3; Sirota, Miroslav3; Teigen, Karl Halvor1,4; Shepherd, Theodore G.5
发表日期2019
ISSN1948-8327
EISSN1948-8335
卷号11期号:3页码:565-575
英文摘要

The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide intervals are also less informative about what the outcome will be than narrow intervals, implying a lack of knowledge or subjective uncertainty in the forecaster. In six experiments, we investigate how laypeople perceive the (un)certainty associated with wide and narrow interval forecasts, and find that the preference for accuracy (seeing wide intervals as "objectively" certain) versus informativeness (seeing wide intervals as indicating "subjective" uncertainty) is influenced by contextual cues (e.g., question formulation). Most important, we find that people more commonly and intuitively associate wide intervals with uncertainty than with certainty. Our research thus challenges the wisdom of using wide intervals to construct statements of high certainty in climate change reports.


WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/100015
作者单位1.Simula Res Lab, Oslo, Norway;
2.Inland Norway Univ Appl Sci, Dept Psychol, Lillehammer, Norway;
3.Univ Essex, Dept Psychol, Colchester, Essex, England;
4.Univ Oslo, Dept Psychol, Oslo, Norway;
5.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lohre, Erik,Juanchich, Marie,Sirota, Miroslav,et al. Climate Scientists' Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain[J],2019,11(3):565-575.
APA Lohre, Erik,Juanchich, Marie,Sirota, Miroslav,Teigen, Karl Halvor,&Shepherd, Theodore G..(2019).Climate Scientists' Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain.WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY,11(3),565-575.
MLA Lohre, Erik,et al."Climate Scientists' Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain".WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY 11.3(2019):565-575.
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