气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6
	Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change
	Hall A.; Cox P.; Huntingford C.; Klein S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:4 页码:269-278
英文摘要	In recent years, an evaluation technique for Earth System Models (ESMs) has arisen—emergent constraints (ECs)—which rely on strong statistical relationships between aspects of current climate and future change across an ESM ensemble. Combining the EC relationship with observations could reduce uncertainty surrounding future change. Here, we articulate a framework to assess ECs, and provide indicators whereby a proposed EC may move from a strong statistical relationship to confirmation. The primary indicators are verified mechanisms and out-of-sample testing. Confirmed ECs have the potential to improve ESMs by focusing attention on the variables most relevant to climate projections. Looking forward, there may be undiscovered ECs for extremes and teleconnections, and ECs may help identify climate system tipping points. © 2019, Springer Nature Limited.
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; future prospect; teleconnection; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/95980
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California — Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hall A.,Cox P.,Huntingford C.,et al. Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change[J],2019,9(4):269-278.
APA	Hall A.,Cox P.,Huntingford C.,&Klein S..(2019).Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change.Nature Climate Change,9(4),269-278.
MLA	Hall A.,et al."Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change".Nature Climate Change 9.4(2019):269-278.