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Europe was expecting to freeze when Russia invaded Ukraine. Instead, the war’s shock waves left some Asian nations in the dark.

After a year of fighting, Europe s gas reserves are bulging and its leaders are moving forward with ambitious plans to green their economy. But it s starkly different thousands of miles away, where poor Asian countries are scrounging for fuel after liquefied natural gas cargoes were rerouted to wealthy European markets.

Some nations have resorted to burning more coal. Others have endured electric blackouts due to abrupt fuel shortages.

One year into Russian leader Vladimir Putin s brutal incursion into Ukraine, deep fault lines are being exposed in the global energy system — some of which were not foreseen by experts — while international climate efforts are facing new challenges. Emissions from fossil fuels worldwide approached an all-time high last year as countries scrambled for supplies of coal, gas and oil to power their economies (Climatewire, Nov. 11, 2022).

The carbon peak came as the clock ticks on global climate efforts. Scientists say the world has nine years at current emissions rates until the rise in global temperatures eclipses 1.5 degrees Celsius, and 30 years until temperatures surpass 2 C.

While the world lurches toward those thresholds, the war is worsening old wounds between rich and poor nations. Those that can afford to pay rising prices are buying up energy resources — and preparing for climate change — while those that can t are slipping backward into the grip of dirtier fuels — or going dark.

“I think there will be greater gaps between countries,” said Jane Nakano, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Rich nations are likely to accelerate their clean energy transition, while poor countries “may slow down to accommodate some other needs like energy access for their populations,” she said.

Like the war itself, the outcome is uncertain for the climate.

Some analysts argue that the conflict has given countries added incentive to adopt clean energy technologies. Adding wind and solar not only reduces emissions but cuts down on the need to import costly fossil fuels. Several forecasters, including the International Energy Agency and BP PLC, have revised their projections for renewable installations upward in the wake of the war.

“I lean toward the view that the energy crisis of 2022 is mostly catalytic and positive for the energy transition,” said Noah Gordon, acting co-director of the sustainability, climate and geopolitics program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

In Europe, the energy crisis stemming from the sudden loss of natural gas from Russia prompted behavioral changes. Speed limits were lowered on highways. The cost of public transportation was reduced. Buildings were heated at lower temperatures. Those reactions show that the world can respond quickly to an energy emergency, Gordon said.

“I think we will look back in 10 years at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and say it actually sped up the energy transition a little bit,” he added.

But others noted how quickly some countries began using more fossil fuels when the war disrupted their economies. In ways that echo the historic release of carbon emissions, the energy crisis created by the war rippled outward from wealthy nations and collided with countries that have the fewest resources — or recourse.

Faced with soaring gas prices, India and Indonesia burned more coal. Bangladesh, which relies on LNG to meet 20 percent of its gas demand, experienced fuel shortages and blackouts. Across parts of Africa, rising prices for fuel and food compounded the impacts of climate change and Covid-19, depriving millions of people of electricity.