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4. Colorado River reservoirs at 46% capacity The Colorado River system’s reservoirs combined are currently less than half full. Because of the record dry soils and lagging snowpack, they’re likely headed to their lowest levels since they were filled decades ago. “These reservoirs are as empty now as when they started filling Glen Canyon Dam in the 1960s,” said John Fleck, director of the University of New Mexico’s water resources program. The low levels aren’t just causing hand-wringing among the West’s water officials. The dropping water and the reservoirs’ expanding bathtub rings are also tied to policy. As Lake Mead outside Las Vegas and Lake Powell in Utah decline, certain policies are triggered into action. Drought contingency plans for the Upper and Lower Basin are now in use. The Lower Basin states of Arizona and Nevada have begun to see their deliveries from the river curtailed. Those cutbacks are likely to grow steeper in 2021. An official shortage declaration from the federal government could come as early as this year, as Lake Mead is currently projected to be below 1,075 feet in elevation at the end of 2021. Meanwhile, Lake Powell’s projected decline in 2021 recently triggered the Upper Basin plan to be used for the first time. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. “Reservoir storage is the best single number that captures two things: how much water nature provides and how much water humans are consuming out of that provision,” Fleck said. “The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place,” he said. 5. A deadline in 2026 With the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in modern history, that brings us to our final number: 2026. That year is the deadline for water users to negotiate a new set of managing guidelines for the Colorado River. “The challenges are really hard,” Fleck said. “And it's easy to put them off if you get a wet year. The dry years are what force the really important steps forward in the policy community.” The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. Federal and state officials have committed to a more inclusive process that integrates the needs of tribes, environmental and recreation groups, and Mexico. Meanwhile, climate change is adding pressure to the entire river system, exacerbating existing supply and demand imbalances. Extremely dry years that produce eye-popping statistics tend to grab officials by the shoulders and give them a good shake. That’s important for the entire region, Fleck said, because the backdrop of an impending crisis will set the tone for those negotiations. For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage.
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