气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Cities face withering heat under worst warming scenarios

CCPortal

Cities face withering heat under worst warming scenarios 科技资讯

时间：2021-01-04 来源：[美国] Daily Climate

Skip to main content Subscribe Latest IssuesMenuScientific American Cart 0Sign In Email *:Password *:Forgot password?Login

Not yet registered?|Stay InformedSearchSubscribeCloseSearchCloseSearchAdvanced Search Coronavirus The Sciences Mind Health Tech Sustainability Video Podcasts Opinion Publications Subscribe Current Issue Cart0 Sign In Stay InformedShareLatest

ClimateCities Face Withering Heat under Worst Warming Scenarios

Temperatures could rise by more than 4 degrees Celsius by 2100 in some cities around the world

By Kylie Mohr, E&E News on January 5, 2021

Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on RedditShare on LinkedInShare viaPrint

Cities Face Withering Heat under Worst Warming Scenarios Moscow hit by a heatwave. A man bathes in a fountain in Manezhnaya Square in Moscow, Russia, on July 11, 2020. Credit: Sergei Savostyanov Getty ImagesAdvertisement

Cities could experience more acute warming than previously predicted, according to scientists.

Research published Monday inNature Climate Changefound that urban regions across the world — from the United States to Africa — could warm by more than 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century under a high-emissions climate change scenario.

"That's a concerning point," said Lei Zhao, the study's lead author and an assistant professor at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. "We showed that this kind of 4-degree warming is actually in a lot of urban areas, with high inter-model robustness and agreement."

The study's authors estimate that even with an intermediate emissions scenario, average warming in cities would increase by 1.9 degrees Celsius. This is more than the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees.

Over half of the world's population lives in urban environments, where concrete and asphalt absorb more heat and inhibit cooling.

The study also predicts an overall decrease in relative humidity, except in coastal regions, by 2100. The paper suggests this might be a sign for optimism. Decreasing humidity would make surface evaporation more efficient and could mean that adaptation strategies like urban vegetation might be effective.

Zhao and his team's models are remarkable in the broader context of climate research. While urban areas are high in population, they only cover about 3% of the Earth's land surface. This means they're often challenging to include in climate change predictions.

"Almost all the global climate models, they do not have an urban representation," Zhao said.

Zhao is aware of one other climate model that represents urban areas; he built upon that work. Multi-model projections are considered best practice.

"This is the very first multi-model projection of urban-specific climate," Zhao said.

Zhao's urban climate emulator was applied to 26 different global climate models using intermediate- and high-emissions scenarios. The process took climate model outputs and translated them into city-level projections of temperature and relative humidity. The technique of filtering information to finer spatial scales could also be applied to rivers, lakes or glaciers.

"The emulator is versatile, so similar emulators can be developed for other ecosystems," Zhao said.

While the emulator's raw output data is available online in a public repository, researchers plan to make a user-friendly interface to share city-specific information with planners and the public.

Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E E News. E E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)Kylie Mohr

E&E News

Recent ArticlesCalifornia Is Closing the Door to Gas in New Homes Race Riot Site from 1908 Could Become a National Park Erin Brockovich Blasts U.S. Regulation of Toxic Chemicals

原文来源：https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cities-face-withering-heat-under-worst-warming-scenarios/