气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Warmer climate projections in EC-Earth3-Veg: The role of changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations from CMIP5 to CMIP6

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab81c2
	Warmer climate projections in EC-Earth3-Veg: The role of changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations from CMIP5 to CMIP6
	Wyser K.; Kjellström E.; Koenigk T.; Martins H.; Döscher R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:5
英文摘要	Climate projections for the 21st century for CMIP6 are warmer than those for CMIP5 despite nominally identical instantaneous radiative forcing. Many climate modeling groups attribute the stronger warming in the CMIP6 projections to the higher climate sensitivity of the new generation of climate models, but here we demonstrate that also changes in the forcing datasets can play an important role, in particular the prescribed concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) that are used to force the models. In the EC-Earth3-Veg model the effective radiative forcing (ERF) is reduced by 1.4 W m-2 when the GHG concentrations from SSP5-8.5 (used in CMIP6) are replaced by the GHG concentrations from RCP8.5 (used in CMIP5), and similar yet smaller reductions are seen for the SSP2-4.5/RCP4.5 and SSP1-2.6/RCP2.6 scenario pairs. From the reduced ERF we can estimate the temperature at the end of the century in a full climate simulation with the CMIP6 version of the EC-Earth model but using CMIP5 GHG concentrations instead. For the new SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios we find that 50% or more of the temperature increase from CMIP5 to CMIP6 at the end of the century is due to changes in the prescribed GHG concentrations. The implication is that CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections for the 21st century are difficult to compare with each other not only as models differ but also as the forcing conditions are not equal. Therefore, the communication of CMIP6 results to the impact, mitigation and adaptation communities has to be carefully formulated, taking into account the role of the updated GHG concentrations when interpreting the warmer climate projections for the 21st century. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate modelling; climate projections; climate scenarios; CMIP6; ScenarioMIP
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Climate change; Greenhouse gases; Climate projection; Climate sensitivity; Climate simulation; Earth models; Gas concentration; Greenhouse gases (GHG); Radiative forcings; Temperature increase; Climate models; climate modeling; CMIP; global warming; greenhouse gas; radiative forcing; twenty first century
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154033
作者单位	Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; MERGE, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wyser K.,Kjellström E.,Koenigk T.,et al. Warmer climate projections in EC-Earth3-Veg: The role of changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations from CMIP5 to CMIP6[J],2020,15(5).
APA	Wyser K.,Kjellström E.,Koenigk T.,Martins H.,&Döscher R..(2020).Warmer climate projections in EC-Earth3-Veg: The role of changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations from CMIP5 to CMIP6.Environmental Research Letters,15(5).
MLA	Wyser K.,et al."Warmer climate projections in EC-Earth3-Veg: The role of changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations from CMIP5 to CMIP6".Environmental Research Letters 15.5(2020).