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Misleading Headline: "Fossil fuels to decline but remain big player in Canada's energy use by 2050: report"
As the article points out, the CER sets out various scenarios based on different policy directions. The CER, IEA, and EIA make projections, not predictions or forecasts. Our climate policy decisions and emissions trajectories are up to us. Not set in stone. Not inevitable.
1st sentence: "The Canada Energy Regulator says reaching net-zero emissions over the next 30 years will require a much more aggressive transition away from oil and gas."
That pathway is entirely possible, if we decide to take it.
Fossil fuel boosters frequently cite IEA "predictions" and "forecasts". Typically, they refer only to the first (or base) scenario and fail to mention the others. The first scenario (Current or Stated Policies) leads to climate disaster. Which the oil lobby conveniently fails to mention.
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The oil lobby distorts IEA reports by rebranding scenarios as "predictions" and "forecasts".
IEA's World Energy Outlook scenarios are NOT predictions. The IEA does not make predictions about the future.
The most recent IEA report (Oct 2020) cited by the War Room sets out four possible scenarios based on different policy directions and emissions trajectories. Projections, not predictions. Which path we choose is up to us.
IEA: "The world energy outlook does not offer a forecast of what the energy system will look like but instead presents various projections to 2040 based on different policy assumptions, in order to give policy makers the tools to decide what path to follow."
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"Commentary: Understanding the World Energy Outlook scenarios"
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2019/october/understanding-the-world-e...
"Today’s energy choices will shape the future of energy, but how should we assess their impact and adequacy? This is the task the World Energy Outlook takes on. It aims to inform the thinking of decision makers as they design new policies or consider new investments. It does so by EXPLORING POSSIBLE FUTURES, the ways they come about and some of the main uncertainties – and it LAYS OUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF DIFFERENT CHOICES FOR OUR ENERGY USE, energy security and environment.
"One key element of this is to ASSESS WHERE THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM IS HEADING, BASED ON THE POLICY PLANS AND INVESTMENT CHOICES WE SEE TODAY. A second is to assess WHAT WOULD NEED TO BE DONE DIFFERENTLY IN ORDER TO REACH THE CLIMATE, ENERGY ACCESS, POLLUTION AND OTHER GOALS that policy makers have set themselves.
"While carbon emissions have flattened in recent years, the report finds that global energy-related CO2 emissions increase slightly by 2040, but at a slower pace than in last year’s projections. Still, THIS IS FAR FROM ENOUGH TO AVOID SEVERE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
"The world energy outlook does not offer a forecast of what the energy system will look like but instead presents various projections to 2040 based on different policy assumptions, in order to give policy makers the tools to decide what path to follow. The main case is called the New Policies Scenario, and it models current and announced energy policies, including those in the Paris Agreement. This year, the report introduces the Sustainable Development Scenario, which offers an integrated way to achieve a range of goals: climate stabilization, cleaner air and universal access to modern energy." (2017)
• www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/november/a-world-in-transformation-world-...
IEA: "Regardless of which pathway the world follows, climate impacts will become more visible and severe over the coming years, increasing the pressure on all elements of society to find solutions. THESE SOLUTIONS CANNOT BE FOUND WITHIN TODAY'S OIL AND GAS PARADIGM."
IEA World Energy Outlook special report: "The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions" (January 2020)
• https://www.iea.org/reports/the-oil-and-gas-industry-in-energy-transitions
Here's what else the IEA has to say: The world has more fossil fuel reserves than it can afford to burn:
"No more than one-third of proven reserves of fossil fuels can be consumed prior to 2050 if the world is to achieve the 2C goal, unless carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is widely deployed."
World Energy Outlook 2012
• www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/English.pdf
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